Below is the probability of the 8 potential outcomes of the 3 key games* and resulting standings.

The Birthday Boy is looking good as he makes the playoff game in the 2 most likely scenarios and 4 or 5 overall. On the opposite end, Heather needs to run the table today to qualify for the championship game.

* The Sugar Bowl is irrelevant as everyone still in the running picked Georgia.

Noah & POP are tied going into the January 1st games.

5 others are 1 game behind and still in the mix (Heather, Nachoboy, NetNet, PAPA, Rookie Commish).

The Citrus Bowl is next with a 12:00 CST kick-off tomorrow.

A Kentucky win keeps Noah & POP in 1st and eliminates Nachoboy, NetNet & PAPA.

A Penn State win eliminates Heather & Rookie Commish and creates a 5 way tie with everyone else remaining.

Nachoboy, Noah & POP get to relish their 1st place tie until Monday afternoon’s Liberty Bowl.

The Liberty Bowl is also the last game before our final four Bowl Battle games on January 1st. And, we’re projecting there will be 8 players left in the competition going into the final day.

• A Missouri win will put Nachoboy alone in 1st and eliminate Heather, Reto & Rookie Commish.
• An OSU win will keep Noah & POP in a 1st place tie and eliminate Gabby, The Commish & Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.

We’re calling the Peach Bowl as a Florida win.  That puts POP in 1st place with SIX people just 1 game behind.

POP stays in the lead if Clemson wins the Cotton Bowl.  If Notre Dame pulls the upset, Pickachu (London) will join POP in the lead heading into the Orange Bowl.

Below are the scenarios for today’s games and who will be leading at the end of the day.

• Michigan + Clemson + Alabama = Noah
• Michigan + Notre Dame + Alabama = Noah, The Commish
• Michigan + Clemson OR Notre Dame + OU  = Gabby, Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
• Florida + Clemson + Alabama = Nachoboy, Noah, POP
• Florida + Notre Dame + Alabama = Nachoboy, Noah, Pickachu, POP, The Commish
• Florida + Clemson + OU = POP
• Florida + Notre Dame + OU = Pickachu + POP

Through 5 games, we have a 4 way tie for first:  Gabby,  Noah, POP & Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.

Today is a full slate of games with the Peach (11:00 CST), Cotton (3:00 CST) and Orange (7:00 CST) bowls.

If Vegas is correct and the favorites win (Michigan, Clemson & Alabama), Noah will end the day alone in first with Elledoo, Heather, NetNet, Pickachu, & Rookie Commish all eliminated.

If Florida pulls off the early game upset and the favorites win the playoff semi-finals, Nachoboy, Noah & POP will be tied for first with 3 of the 4 young pups eliminated;  Elledoo, Pickachu & Zoodoo.

But, then again, it’s rare that all the favorites win.   🙂

– The Commish

Check out the Standings page for everyone’s picks.    Good luck!